Receiver-Operating Characteristic Analysis for Evaluating the Severity of the Condition of Preterm Children Depending on Perinatal Risk Factors, Timing, and Mode of Delivery

Agamurad A. Orazmuradov, Phd, ScD¹; Setonde Romeo D. Konnon, PhD¹; Nina I. Zakharova, PhD, ScD²; Aleksey A. Lukaev, PhD²

¹Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, Moscow Russia; ²Mytishchi municipal clinical hospital, Mytishchi, Moscow Region, Russia

Corresponding author: Aleksey A. Lukaev, PhD. Mytishchi municipal clinical hospital, Mytishchi, Moscow Region, Russia.  E-mail:

Published: June 20, 2016.  DOI: 10.21103/Article6(2)_OA2


The aim of this study was to assess the role of the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis for evaluating the severity of the condition of preterm children, depending on perinatal risk (PR) factors, timing, and mode of delivery. In order to identify the thresholds for "intrapartum gain" of risk factors for timely selection of mode of delivery, we performed a comparative ROC analysis of the severity of the state of children at birth according to the Apgar score (AS), from 1 point in the first minute to 7 points in the fifth minute of life. The analysis of indicators of perinatal mortality (PM) and perinatal morbidity (PMb) shows a statistically significant difference (P<0.05) in the selection of the priority mode of delivery for women with premature birth during all analyzed gestation ages, depending on PR: frequency of PM and PMb is lower among pregnant women with a high risk who gave birth to premature babies delivered by C-section. 

perinatal mortality; perinatal morbidity; preterm delivery; ROC analysis; perinatal risk factors

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Int J Biomed. 2016;6(2):106-109. © 2016 International Medical Research and Development Corporation. All rights reserved.